Tag Archives: Ken Giles

2016 MLB Positional Rankings

Each year, I like to do an MLB-wide player ranking by position. It’s a breakdown of what I expect to be each player’s total contribution to his team in the coming season. It takes into account offense, defense, baserunning—the overall game. For the sabermetrically-inclined, I suppose you could say this is how I expect the players to rank in total WAR for 2016. The only reason they’re grouped by position is that they’re easier to compare that way. For instance, I couldn’t definitively say who was better between Giancarlo Stanton and Addison Russell, because I wouldn’t know how to quantify the importance of position, and the defense-for-offense tradeoff. But I can compare Stanton to other outfielders, and Russell to other shortstops.

Comments are welcome, of course, but please keep in mind that there is a fair amount of speculation included in the following rankings. The best players of 2015 won’t be the same as the best players of 2016, because that isn’t how baseball works.

We’ll start with the top five catchers in 2016:

  1. Buster Posey, Giants
  2. Salvador Pérez, Royals
  3. Matt Wieters, Orioles
  4. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
  5. Francisco Cervelli, Pirates

Posey is the indisputable favorite here. His 6.1 bWAR last year was far and away the best of any full-time catcher in the majors. He put up his usual strong offensive numbers, while putting the world on notice to his improving defensive skills: he was recognized as a Gold Glove finalist for the first time in his career. But Wieters is the one to watch. After being limited to just 101 games over the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, he accepted the Orioles’ one-year qualifying offer in a bid to re-establish his value as an elite backstop. If he comes back strong with 20-homer power and his usual cannon of an arm, expect to hear his name a lot this year.

Honorable mention: Russell Martin, Travis d’Arnaud, Brian McCann

Top five first basemen in 2016:

  1. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
  2. Joey Votto, Reds
  3. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
  4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
  5. Chris Davis, Orioles

As ridiculous of a notion as it is that Paul Goldschmidt might still be underrated, that’s exactly the case. At least the league recognizes he’s the greatest hitter in the game right now: pitchers showed him respect last season to the tune of 29 intentional walks. Add his Gold Glove defense to that, and you can understand why he’ll be at the top of the MVP discussion for many years to come.

Honorable mention: Eric Hosmer, Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu

Top five second basemen in 2016:

  1. José Altuve, Astros
  2. Jason Kipnis, Indians
  3. Dee Gordon, Marlins
  4. Robinson Canó, Mariners
  5. Kolten Wong, Cardinals

Jason Kipnis started to find his way in 2015, batting .318/.391/.481 from May 1st on. One hopes, as the Indians certainly do, that this is the true player that had been touted so highly since his days as a top prospect. But José Altuve still claims the top spot on this list, because he’s firmly established himself as one of the top hitters in the game. He’s virtually a lock for 200 hits, and he even started to find some power last season with 15 long balls. Expect this level of production to continue, as the 25-year old is just now entering his prime.

Honorable Mention: Joe Panik, Ben Zobrist, Logan Forsythe

Top five shortstops in 2016:

  1. Carlos Correa, Astros
  2. Francisco Lindor, Indians
  3. Addison Russell, Cubs
  4. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
  5. Brandon Crawford, Giants

An impressive field of youngsters highlights this list, most notably Carlos Correa, who hasn’t even played a full season in the big leagues, yet should still be considered one of the best players in the game right now. With 22 homers in his rookie campaign, his bat is exceptionally mature for a 21-year old. Fellow second-year player Addison Russell, whose defensive game is up there with the best in baseball, should also be fun to watch, as he’s set to assume the shortstop role for a full season with the Cubs.

Honorable Mention: Troy Tulowitzki, Ketel Marté, Andrelton Simmons

Top five third basemen in 2016:

  1. Manny Machado, Orioles
  2. Nolan Arenado, Rockies
  3. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
  4. Kris Bryant, Cubs
  5. Jung Ho Kang, Pirates

Manny Machado’s power production exploded in 2015, with 35 home runs, blowing past his previous career high mark of 14. He’s also the only player in baseball to have played all 162 games last season, putting to rest any concerns about him being injury-prone. At this rate, the 23-year old should continue to mash, as well as provide wizard-like glovework for years to come.

Honorable Mention: Matt Duffy, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltré

Top five left fielders in 2016:

  1. Michael Brantley, Indians
  2. Miguel Sano, Twins
  3. Starling Marté, Pirates
  4. Justin Upton, Tigers
  5. David Peralta, Diamondbacks

Michael Brantley has somewhat quietly been one of the best-hitting outfielders in baseball the past two seasons, with a combined slash line of .319/.382/.494 over that time. As the Indians’ middle-of-the-order hitter, Brantley stands to see even more opportunities as his young teammates mature. Miguel Sano is a guy to watch, as his offensive production should be impressive—but I’d be concerned with how well his defense will hold up in left field.

Honorable Mention: Alex Gordon, Kyle Schwarber, Kevin Pillar

Top five center fielders in 2016:

  1. Mike Trout, Angels
  2. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
  3. A.J. Pollock, Diamondbacks
  4. Jason Heyward, Cubs
  5. Lorenzo Cain, Royals

No surprise as to who’s number one on this list. The less familiar names include A.J. Pollock, who should be recognized as a perennial MVP candidate after last year’s breakout season. Look for him to build on that 20-homer, 7.4 bWAR campaign. Jason Heyward has been one of the best defensive outfielders for years, but will the move from right to center help—or hurt—his outlook? I’m expecting a few growing pains.

Honorable Mention: Kevin Kiermaier, Carlos Gómez, Byron Buxton

Top five right fielders in 2016:

  1. Bryce Harper, Nationals
  2. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
  3. José Bautista, Blue Jays
  4. Kole Calhoun, Angels
  5. Carlos González, Rockies

I still don’t think we’ve seen peak Giancarlo Stanton. If he can play a full season and stay healthy, there’s no reason he couldn’t put up numbers similar to Bryce Harper’s last year. The two of them should really be viewed as equals, but Harper gets the #1 spot since he’s the reigning MVP. Also, I’m obligated to remind you that Carlos González is still only 30 years old and coming off a 40-homer season.

Honorable Mention: Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez, Yasiel Puig

Top five starting pitchers in 2016:

  1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
  2. Chris Archer, Rays
  3. Jake Arrieta, Cubs
  4. Chris Sale, White Sox
  5. Max Scherzer, Nationals

Clayton Kershaw is simply superhuman. With a career-high 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings last year, he’s more unhittable than ever before. Arrieta is the reigning Cy Young winner, but he’ll need to establish himself even more if he has thoughts of dethroning the king. Chris Archer’s strikeout rate has improved each of the last three seasons, and he’s just entering his prime years. Also, look for a bounce-back year from Chris Sale. His 3.41 ERA and .324 BABIP last year were hugely out of character, so expect him to settle back down near his career norms.

Honorable Mention: Zack Greinke, Dallas Keuchel, David Price, José Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Madison Bumgarner, Masahiro Tanaka

Relief pitchers are always a crap shoot, but I’ll take a shot at it:

  1. Aroldis Chapman, Yankees
  2. Jeurys Familia, Mets
  3. Wade Davis, Royals
  4. Ken Giles, Astros
  5. Zach Britton, Orioles

Not much of an explanation needed here. If you can throw 103, you can have the top spot on this list. I’m excited to see the evolution of Ken Giles, but there may be a learning curve as he gets used to his new home ballpark in Houston. Zach Britton is, for the second year running, the best closer no one’s talking about.

Philadelphia Phillies 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Phillies, who are suffering from the worst of playoff hangovers—the kind that you still feel seven years after winning, as a result of overpaying all the aging stars that got you there.

Projected Lineup: CF Ben Revere, C Carlos Ruiz, 2B Chase Utley, 1B Ryan Howard, LF Domonic Brown, RF Grady Sizemore, 3B Cody Asche, SS Freddy Galvis

Projected Rotation: LHP Cole Hamels, LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Aaron Harang*, RHP David Buchanan, RHP Jerome Williams

* new additions

The Phillies are stuck in the past, like that one guy we all went to college with, who never put away his record player and forced us to listen to that James Gang album every time we came over, claiming it to be “the best thing you’ve ever heard, man”.

The Phillies are convinced it is still 2008, which is why in addition to fielding the same aging team every year, they’ve also added Grady Sizemore, whom they think they got for a huge bargain because he’s still the player he was seven years ago. It’s this blatant disregard for the human aging process that continues to be the club’s downfall.

This is no more apparent than in the starting lineup, where Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are still penciled in as the heavy hitters. In reality, they each posted career lows in OPS last year, with Howard in particular dropping to below replacement level. Howard’s WAR last season was a negative 1.1, meaning that a hypothetical minor league player playing in Howard’s spot for the entire year could’ve won the Phillies about 1.1 more games.

Another thing costing the Phillies is their strange penchant for left-handed hitters. Almost literally their entire starting lineup bats left-handed. It’s so extreme that it’s more of a disadvantage than anything, because all opposing teams need to do is to schedule their big lefty starters to pitch when the Phils come to town. It’s almost too easy.

Darin Ruf might be the one saving grace the Phillies have, because although he’ll never hit well enough overall to be an everyday player, he did manage a .916 OPS against lefties last season.

For more right-handed help, the team might look to Maikel Franco, one of the club’s top prospects. A third baseman with power, he is ultimately in line to replace the utterly disappointing Cody Asche, who I’m sure is a great guy, but never does much in the way of offense at a position where offense is expected.

In the rotation, Cole Hamels is the one holdover from the ’08 team still worth watching. Partly because he’s still only 31 years old, but also because he still seems to be maturing as a pitcher. Last season he posted a career-low 2.46 ERA and surprisingly, a career high fastball velocity of 92.3 MPH. It’s strange, but it’s almost as if he’s getting stronger, maybe due to the lack of wear from not pitching in October.

Cliff Lee is the biggest question mark on the team. The main question is whether he’ll be able to pitch at all, after the torn tendon in his elbow refused to heal over the winter. If he pitches, it’ll be through pain, so if you’re wondering how effective he’ll be this season, you can bet there aren’t many optimistic projections out there.

The rest of the rotation is made up of stopgap guys like Aaron Harang and Jerome Williams, the type of pitchers you sign when you know you’re going to be bad, but you still need to field a team, so you offer up one-year contracts to whomever bites. This group also includes Chad Billingsley, fresh off of Tommy John surgery and a dark horse candidate to have a good comeback season.

If I had to pinpoint one bright spot on the team, it would be the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon remains one of the premier closers in the game, and holds down the ninth inning. But the real rising star is a guy you’ve never heard of: Ken Giles. He’s coming off a rookie campaign in which he posted some otherworldly numbers, including a 1.18 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He now owns the set-up role for the Phillies, effectively shortening the game while allowing the Phils to mix and match more with spot relievers in the earlier innings.

Two things are certain in life: taxes, and great ballplayers eventually succumbing to old age. The Phillies have fallen victim to the latter, and actually the former as well, with the exorbitant amounts of money they’re paying to their over-the-hill stars. Eventually the cycle starts over, and the Phillies will be on the winning side again, infused with young talent. But that’s a story for another day.

Projected Finish: 65-97, Fifth place in NL East